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A fresh structure is emerging in the global energy scene

Jun. 24, 2024

Recently, the international sphere has been rattled by a startling development. David Fickling, a prestigious Bloomberg columnist, has released a significant report asserting that China's unstoppable ascent in new energy is poised to shake up the world energy disposition further.


I've consumed earlier scholarly pieces of this author, who isn't particularly China-leaning. The investigation possesses academic rigour and authority, attracting masses in Europe and America. Following its unveiling, it sparked discontent mainly within these demographics. Did China somehow influence the American scholar's views? Since when did he become a pro-China voice? However, a significant number of Westerners also concede that their perspective on China's new energy has been recalibrated, to the point of astonishment, after perusing David Fickling's article.


The report's central theme involves a comparison between the 'seven sisters' of the oil empire and China's 'seven sons' of new energy, examining the impact of the energy they generate on the global economy.

•The 'seven sisters' pertain to established oil companies in the West, namely ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, Total Energy, ConocoPhillips, and Eni.

 •China's seven new energy enterprises comprise Tongwei Group, GCL Technology, Xinte Energy, Longji Green Energy, Trina Solar, Jingao Solar, and Jingke Energy.

    

Standing at the helm of conventional energy, petroleum, despite its centuries-long global dominance, offers rather low conversion efficiency - a mere quarter of it gets transformed into beneficial electricity via the extraction and combustion of oil wells, while the remaining dissipates as worthless noise and thermal energy.An annual estimation of the effective energy conversion of products from solar and oil companies yields the following illustration:

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While it may initially appear that oil corporations still hold the reins, the energy yielded annually by businesses like Tongwei is becoming comparable to these oil giants. Yet, this comparison might not be entirely fair since the oil extracted by these companies is non-renewable, destined to be exhausted eventually. Conversely, one can estimate the "reserves" of solar entities by multiplying their production capacity by 7.5, which provides the following chart:

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The potential energy production of solar companies has already surpassed that of oil companies when it comes to energy storage capability. However, this comparison still leans towards being inequitable. The photovoltaic panels manufactured by solar firms have a lifespan of roughly 25 years, generating electricity consistently throughout each year. On the other hand, the oil extracted by oil corporations is depleted in a matter of months once burnt. By accounting for this aspect yet again, we arrive at the conclusive result:

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Fickling postulates that ever since the first industrial revolution spurred the ascent of coal-rich nations like Britain, Germany, and the United States, countries wielding control over prime energy sources have essentially been the forerunners of each century. During the latter half of the 20th century, the emergence of crude oil conferred power and prosperity to Russia and the Middle East while concurrently extending the global leadership of America. This very transition has substantiated the petrodollar as a critical commodity pillar underpinning the worldwide circulation of the US dollar, thereby reinforcing its supremacy.

 

Presently though, the influence exerted by the "China New Energy Seven Sons" in the 21st-century energy framework might potentially surpass the impact of the "European and American Oil Seven Sisters" that reigned in the 20th century.

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